Avoid Point Forecasting
Economic forecasting is a big and lucrative business. Economists get Nobel prizes and are paid enormous salaries by Wall Street firms to make forecasts re the economy, interest rates and the capital markets. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publishes a self assessment of their track record alongside that of Wall Street’s top economists and that of the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that they are rarely successful and at important inflection points in the economy they don’t even get the plus or minus correct. (See More)
Like active managers, every year there is an economist or market timer who gets it right but over longer time frames (three to five years) virtually no-one is able to do so.
Conclusion – We think in probabilities of expectations. We do not know the future state of markets with certainty. However, we construct an investment strategy that accounts for multiple future outcomes. Our investment philosophy and our dynamic market indicator tools allow us to identify asset classes that are opportunistically over- or under- priced relative to others and to act on this opportunity in a risk-sensitive manner.