GSIS Weekly: The Market in Review

Week ended October 30, 2026

Stocks fell for a third straight week as concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) spending weighed on technology shares, with a sharp drop on Friday after results from Intel and Amazon. Bonds gained as yields eased.

Bond prices rose as the 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 bps to 4.94%, with most of the decline coming Thursday and Friday as stocks sold off.

Oil stayed elevated, with Brent crude above $110 a barrel as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continued. Higher energy prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook.

Technology drove the declines. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 2% on the week and about 5% in October, its weakest month since March 2025. Alphabet shares had their worst day in more than 20 years on Thursday after its earnings. On Friday, Intel fell more than 28% after weak fourth quarter guidance, and Amazon's results renewed attention on AI spending, even as its cloud revenue growth accelerated. International stocks held up better than U.S. stocks, with ACWX down 0.1% against 0.6% for SPY.

Fed Watch

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10 to 2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as elevated.

One Thing to Watch

How investors separate AI spenders by cash flow. Microsoft reported $18.6 billion of free cash flow for the quarter, while Meta reported negative free cash flow. Amazon's free cash flow over the past 12 months was also negative. This week's stock reactions suggest investors are paying closer attention to these differences.

Looking Ahead

Midterm elections are Tuesday, and the October jobs report is due Friday. Apple and Palantir report Monday after the close, and AMD reports Tuesday. ISM surveys and developments in the Middle East also remain in focus.

Return-table figures are from YCharts. ETF figures are total returns. The Treasury figure is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, not a total return. This commentary is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.