Week ended September 25, 2026
Markets finished the week higher overall, but the path was far from smooth. Rising Treasury yields and day-to-day moves in oil drove much of the volatility. Large technology and semiconductor stocks continued to have an outsized effect on the major indexes.
Source: YCharts. ETF figures represent total return. Treasury figures represent changes in yield.
The bond market was front and center again. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 5.17% after moving above 5.20% during the week. The yield had not been above 5.10% since July 13, 2007.
WTI crude oil ended the week lower, but it remained a source of volatility as markets followed developments in the Middle East. The pullback provided some relief for inflation concerns. The larger question is whether that move holds.
Technology stocks remained an important part of the story. AI-related companies, especially semiconductors, helped support the market early in the week. The group also showed how sensitive it is to higher rates and questions about whether the pace of AI spending can continue. The AI investment cycle remains intact, but expectations are high and the stocks are likely to remain volatile.
International markets were dealing with many of the same issues: higher borrowing costs, energy prices, and central-bank policy. The U.S. dollar remained firm.
In credit markets, higher Treasury yields, rather than a major change in credit spreads, were the bigger driver of borrowing costs.
Fed Watch
Fed officials continued to stress that inflation has not come down enough. They did not commit to the next rate move, but their comments made clear that future decisions will depend on inflation, the labor market, and how long higher energy prices persist. The message this week was that the Fed is not ready to declare the tightening cycle over.
One Thing to Watch
Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. Its move above 5.10% brought it back to levels last seen in 2007. It remains the best quick read on how markets are thinking about inflation, growth, government borrowing, and the likely path of interest rates.
Looking Ahead
Next week brings a fuller set of labor-market data, including the JOLTS report, private payrolls, jobless claims, and the monthly employment report. Manufacturing data and consumer-confidence readings will also be in focus. Investors will continue to watch Fed speakers, the Treasury auction calendar, oil prices, and AI-related earnings and company updates.
Return-table figures are from YCharts. ETF figures are total returns. The Treasury figure is the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, not a total return. This commentary is for general informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.